The 2024 election season saw voters across the country come out to the polls in record numbers. The strong participation shows that Americans are deeply engaged in issues that affect their lives and their futures. This is a good thing! In addition, voting and ballot counting went smoothly overall, a further sign of a healthy democracy.
As we await the final official results of this historic election, we will see a lot of discussion about how to interpret the results. Several factors are likely to play a role in this analysis, including how close the race was and the impact of the economy on voters’ choices. The results of the election will also have important implications for state and local governments.
News outlets collect unofficial results in real time as ballots are counted at each local precinct and from other sources like government websites. These data are collected into a vote reporting system unique to each media outlet. This collection informs each outlet’s prediction (often referred to as a “call”) about who they think will win a particular race. This collection continues for days, or even weeks after a call is made, until the full results of every single vote have been fully compiled and certified by election officials.
This process typically includes an initial tally of first choice votes from election day, early in-person, and mail ballots, followed by preliminary RCV elimination rounds (which do not include affidavit ballots) one week later. These results are then compared to projections from each media outlet’s statistical models. This step allows analysts to confirm that their predictions match the actual results.